Covid-19 Seasonality

Covid-19 Seasonality aim to use international pandemic and zoonotic data to model the climate and seasonal impact on SARS-CoV-2 spread, as well as emerging disease hotspot data to estimate the progress of new zoonotic «disease X»’s in the future.

Covid-19 Seasonality is a Norwegian based project with strong collaborations with organisations in China, Iran, UK, USA, and the African Union to develop information and inform the response to the ongoing covid-19 pandemic. The objectives are to (I) Extract the functional response of SARS-CoV-2 to environmental factors (including seasonal factors) from changes in growth rate of the covid-19 pandemic; to (II) Predict the near and long term seasonality and age-specific burden of covid-19 infection in Norway and other countries; and to (III) Prepare Norway (and other countries) for future pandemics by assessing the potential speed and intensity with which new emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) will arrive from high-risk regions.

Early in the project, we will produce quantitative models to forecast the seasonal conditions in Norway and other countries that favor and hinder the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, improving predictions of epidemic trends. We will continue to improve and iterate on these models throughout the project.

In addition to the quantitative models, we will produce three high-quality novel datasets during Covid-19 Seasonality, those being (1) a dataset of the timing and spatial extent of various control measures, testing regimes and hospital patient overflows that we will use to assess the role of meteorological factors on the pandemic growth rate, (2) a dataset of global hotspots of human-wildlife interactions sourced from grey and published literature, and (3) a spatial database with an assessment of the speed and intensity with which future viral spill-overs are expected to arrive. We will share our findings openly at the end of the project, and distribute early versions to our national and international partners, such that international Public Health authorities can improve their preparedness against future diseases.

Although we will be focusing on the spatio-temporal dynamics of covid-19 pandemics in China, Europe and North America, much of the insight will be of importance to other parts of the world, not the least Africa.

Project manager

Kyrre Kausrud, NVI

Nils Chr. Stenseth, UiO


  • University of Oslo (UiO
  • Pennsylvania State University
  • Princeton University
  • Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology
  • Tsinghua University
  • Beijing Normal University
  • Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University 
  • University of Oxford
  • Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI)
Funded by the Research Council of Norway
Research Areas
GIS - geographic information systems, Bioinformatics, Epidemiology, Risk assesment